Econometric Studies Unit

Annual Model

The first macro econometric model that came to be known as the ESU model was formulated by Toh Mun Heng, assisted by Koh Lin Ji. This model is basically a Keynesian model and uses annual data. The original version had 24 endogenous variables (12 behavioral equations and 12 identities) and 17 exogenous variables. The model has undergone many changes over time in the hands of other ESU modellers. The 1994 version of the model had 56 endogenous variables (25 behavioral equations and 31 identities) and 20 exogenous variables.
 

Quarterly Models

In 1992 Tilak Abeysinghe constructed a simple quarterly model and it was utilized in ESU forecasts between 1993 and 1995.
 

Reference: Abeysinghe, T. "A small-scale model to forecast GDP growth of Singapore" in Computational statistics edited by Y. Dodge and J. Whittaker, pp. 297-302, Physia Verlag (1992).
 

    Singapore country model

In 1996 Tilak Abeysinghe, with the assistance of Christopher Lee, constructed a large-scale quarterly model consisting of 32 endogenous variables (15 behavioral equations and 17 identities) and 5 exogenous variables. The model covers value added, employment, wages, unit labor cost, and productivity by sector. The ESU quarterly forecasts since 1997 have been generated mainly from this model. This model is still under expansion and will replace the annual model.
 

    Multi-country model

In 1998 Tilak Abeysinghe constructed a multi-country quarterly model that connects the GDP of 12 economies through 132 bilateral export shares. This model can generate forecasts for these economies completely interdependently. Since August 1998 ESU has used this model in forecasting.
 

Reference:

Tilak Abeysinghe "Measuring the contagious effect of the Asian crisis on total production: A structural VAR approach", Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, 1999.

Abeysinghe, T. and Forbes K. (2005) “Trade linkages and output-multipliers: A structural VAR approach with a focus on Asia”, Review of International Economics, 2005, 356-375. (NBER Working Paper W8600, 2001).

    ESU01 model

In 2001 Tilak Abeysinghe and Choy Keen Meng formulated a new macro model that embodies many features that are specific to Singapore, theoretical developments, and a substantially improved data base. The model was further improved in 2005. Some references are given below. More on the model will be made available to the public at a later stage.
 

Reference:

Tilak Abeysinghe and Choy Keen Meng "The aggregate consumption puzzle in Singapore" (2004), Journal of Asian Economics, 563-578.

Tilak Abeysinghe and Choy Keen Meng "Modelling small economy exports: The case of Singapore", SCAPE Working Paper 2005/01.

Tilak Abeysinghe and Choy Keen Meng, The Singapore Economy: An Econometric Perspective, (Routledge, 2007)