Department of Economics

Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences


Seminar - Upcoming

2013 Asia Summer Institute in Behavioral Economics
Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society 2013
Past Events
Department Seminar


Real Exchange Rates and Sectoral Productivity in the Eurozone


Charles Engel
(MAS Term Professor In Economics and Finance)
University of Wisconsin-Madison

Date: Jan 17, Tue

Time: 4 - 5:30 pm

Venue: Lim Tay Boh Seminar Room (AS2 03-12)
National University of Singapore
1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570

Chair: Park Jungjae

We investigate the link between the real exchange rate and sectoral total factor productivity measures for countries in the Eurozone. We show that real exchange rate variation, both in cross-country and time series, closely accords with an amended Balassa-Samuelson interpretation, incorporating shocks both to sectoral productivity and a labor market wedge. We construct a sticky price dynamic general equilibrium model to generate a cross-section and time series of real exchange rates that can be directly compared to the data. Under the assumption of a common currency, estimates from simulated regressions are very similar to the empirical estimates for the Eurozone. Our findings contrast with previous studies that have found little relationship between productivity levels and the real exchange rate among high-income countries, but those studies have included country pairs which have a floating nominal exchange rate.